【機(jī)械類畢業(yè)論文中英文對(duì)照文獻(xiàn)翻譯】乘用車變速器市場(chǎng)分析與預(yù)測(cè)
【機(jī)械類畢業(yè)論文中英文對(duì)照文獻(xiàn)翻譯】乘用車變速器市場(chǎng)分析與預(yù)測(cè),機(jī)械類畢業(yè)論文中英文對(duì)照文獻(xiàn)翻譯,機(jī)械類,畢業(yè)論文,中英文,對(duì)照,對(duì)比,比照,文獻(xiàn),翻譯,乘用車,變速器,市場(chǎng)分析,預(yù)測(cè)
黑龍江工程學(xué)院本科生畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)
附 錄
Market Analysis and Forecast of Light Vehicle Transmission
1 Global transmission market status
The current global vehicle production increases at an average annual rate of 3.5% per year and is expected to at least 89 million at 2015. With the increase in light vehicle production, manual transmission and planetary gear automatic transmission is also expected to yield increases, but they will be occupied a part of the CVT market share by the AMT. Compared with planetary gear transmission, AMT and the CVT automatic transmission can not only improve the transmission efficiency and decrease production costs, but also can quickly improve the shift quality; so it is expected that AMT will be higher growth rates. CVT applications will be limited to small vehicles, but if the ring IVT technology in practical applications become more mature, reliable and gain market acceptance, it can achieve strong growth momentum.
2 Transmission Market Analysis and Forecast
2.1 manual transmission (MT)
Over the years, Western Europe focus on studying driving control, manufacturing costs and fuel economy and other issues, becoming the largest market for manual transmissions, but it is expected that in the next 5 years, the market position of the manual transmission will eventually be replaced by Eastern Europe and Asia. However, in whole Europe, the proportion of manual transmission has been on the decline, especially when the AMT gains more market share and the automatic transmission is applied the small car market and manual transmission in the European new car market share is expected to decrease from 2005 In about 80% to 70% in 2010, about 55% by 2015. At Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), manual transmission market share is expected to decrease from 87% in 2005 down to 85% in 2010 and drop to 83% in 2015. However, automatic transmission and CVT are very popular in Japan, and manual transmission will lose market share gradually, expecting to decline from the current 22% to 13% in 2010. In North America, the manual transmission market share is expected to continue to decline, from 13% in 2005 down to 11% in 2010, and by 2015 only 10% of the market. In China, India, Pacific Rim and South America, 5-speed manual transmission is expected to continue to occupy most of the market share. Overall, as a slight increase in global automotive production, the global market share of the manual transmission is expected to decline.
2.2 Automatic Transmission (AT)
Over the years, the North American car owners are more like driving a car with automatic transmission, and this preference will still continue, despite the recent tend that buying a vehicle with better fuel economy may affect the automatic transmission market, resulting market share falling. Planetary gear automatic transmission will account for 85% of the market share in 2010, 87% in 2005 but2015 will drop to 83%. In 2010, 5-speed automatic transmission will account for 77% of total transmission, while the market share of 6-speed transmission will increase, especially the large torque 6-speed transmission. 6-speed automatic transmission is expected to account for 15%～20%of the total output of automatic transmission, 50% by 2010. In 2015. 4-speed automatic transmission is expected to disappear from new product by 2010.
Due to CVT quickly capture the market, especially in Japan account for a large proportion of small and micro-car segment, automatic transmission has been Japan's dominant position in the market for many years. Automatic transmission market share is expected to decrease from 60% in 2005 to 50% in 2010, down to 45% in 2015. New car market has grown rapidly in the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), automatic transmission is expected to increase from 15% in 2005 to 18% in 2010, 22% in 2015. In Europe, the automatic transmission market will be eroded by DCT, from 17% in 2005 down to 16% in 2015 to 14% by 2015. In the March 2007 survey found that 15% of the next European automatic transmission owners planed to buy a car assembled DCT select models, and more than 40% report showed that they would consider models with AMT. According to analysis, the global vehicle production assembled automatic transmission will soon exceed manual transmission car, but a part of the total amount of the automatic transmission increase in the proportion due to AMT. With the growth of AMT and the CVT, the traditional planetary automatic transmission is expected to be only slightly higher than the 29 million units in 2005, while in 2010 it will surpass 3000 million and in 2015 achieve 33 million units.
2.3 Continuously variable transmission (CVT)
CVT in Japan has been in a dominant market position, its market share is expected to continue to grow from about 20% in 2005 to 38% in 2010. In other markets, CVT will only get a certain degree of market acceptance. CVT may be expected to achieve 5% market share in Europe by 2010, but the possibility of achieving that is even smaller than the market in North America. While CVT can transmit high torque, but manufacturing CVT need special alloy steel and require special high-precision machining, making the manufacturing cost relatively expensive, much higher than the manual transmission with considerable power. CVT size is also an assembly problem, in Europe because its lower torque transmission capability has limited consumer acceptance. In North America, full of large displacement vehicles, the CVT significantly reduced market penetration, and only to such as the Honda Civic Hybrid and other automotive facilities. Although acceptance is limited in the two larger markets, the global production of CVT is expected to increase about 60%, from 250 million units in 2005 to 400 million units in 2010 and in 2015 almost 600 million units. It will be driven by fast-growing small car market in developing countries, markets in developed countries shifting to better fuel economy small cars and hybrid technology.
2.4 The automatic mechanical transmission (AMT)
AMT market share is expected to be significant growth in the coming years, especially with the improvement of the quality shift in the traditional automatic transmission, leading to the luxury car market more attractive. One advantage of AMT is the hydraulic to electric drive to get better transmission efficiency and transmission efficiency of AMT in a way beyond the manual gearbox, because the driver is unlikely to be more than a computer to optimize shift to Improve fuel economy.
Because European prefers the manual transmission traditionally, and focus on driver control and the study of fuel economy, the growth rate of AMT in Europe will be the highest, where the market share is expected to increase from only 1% in 2005 to 15% in 2010 and to 29% by 2015. Survey found that 15% of the purchaser and carrying automatic transmission European car owners plan to buy a car with DCT next time, more than 40% of car owners would consider buying a car with AMT. The market share of DCT will reach 29% by 2015 in Europe, but analysts predict the share is only 10%. In the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan, market share of AMT is expected to reach 7% in 2010, rising to 13% by 2015. It is predicted that market share of AMT in Japan is very low, no more than 2% in 2010. Automatic transmissions in North America are expected to continue to maintain the leading position, the market share of AMT rise from 0 in 2005 to 4% in 2010 and 7% by 2015. Global production of AMT is expected to surpass 5.5 million units in 2010 and reach about 1,200 million units in 2015.
乘用車變速器市場(chǎng)分析與預(yù)測(cè)
1 全球變速器市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀
目前全球汽車產(chǎn)量平均以每年3.5％的速度遞增，預(yù)計(jì)至2015年全球輕型汽車產(chǎn)量將至少達(dá)到8900萬輛。隨著輕型汽車的產(chǎn)量增加，手動(dòng)變速器和行星齒輪自動(dòng)變速器的產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)也將隨之增加，但都將會(huì)被AMT和CVT侵占一部分市場(chǎng)份額。AMT和CVT與行星齒輪自動(dòng)變速器相比，不僅提高了傳動(dòng)效率而且制造成本不高，而且能快速提高換擋質(zhì)量；所以預(yù)計(jì)AMT將獲得較高的增長率。CVT的應(yīng)用將局限于小型車輛上，但如果環(huán)形IVT技術(shù)在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中越來越成熟可靠并取得市場(chǎng)認(rèn)可，則可以取得強(qiáng)勁的增長勢(shì)頭。
2 變速器市場(chǎng)分析與預(yù)測(cè)
2.1 手動(dòng)變速器（MT）
多年來，西歐關(guān)注于研究駕駛控制、制造成本和燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性等問題，現(xiàn)在已成為手動(dòng)變速器的最大市場(chǎng)，但預(yù)計(jì)在未來5年內(nèi)手動(dòng)變速器的最大市場(chǎng)位置最終將被東歐和亞洲替代。然而在整個(gè)歐洲，手動(dòng)變速器所占的比例卻一直在下降，特別是受AMT獲得更多的市場(chǎng)份額和自動(dòng)變速器打入小型車市場(chǎng)的影響，預(yù)計(jì)手動(dòng)變速器在歐洲新車的市場(chǎng)份額將從2005年約80％降到2010年的70％左右，到2015年約為55％。在亞太地區(qū)（不包括日本），手動(dòng)變速器的市場(chǎng)份額預(yù)計(jì)將從2005年的87％下降到2010年的85％，到2015年下降到83％。而在日本，自動(dòng)變速器和CVT 很受歡迎，手動(dòng)變速器將失去市場(chǎng)份額，預(yù)計(jì)從目前的22％下降到2010年的13％。在北美，手動(dòng)變速器的市場(chǎng)份額預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)下降，從2005年的13％降到2010年的11％，到2015年時(shí)僅占市場(chǎng)的10％。而在我國、印度、太平洋沿岸地區(qū)和南美洲，預(yù)計(jì)5 速手動(dòng)變速器將繼續(xù)占有絕大部分市場(chǎng)份額。總體而言，隨著全球汽車總產(chǎn)量略有增加，手動(dòng)變速器的全球市場(chǎng)份額預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)下降。
2.2 自動(dòng)變速器（AT）
多年來，北美車主都更喜歡駕駛裝有自動(dòng)變速器的汽車，這種偏好將仍然繼續(xù)，盡管近期趨于購買燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性更好車輛的可能會(huì)影響到自動(dòng)變速器市場(chǎng)，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)份額下降[1]。行星齒輪自動(dòng)變速器在2010年仍將占據(jù)85％的市場(chǎng)份額，而2005年為87％，到2015年將下降到83％。2010年，預(yù)計(jì)5速自動(dòng)變速器將占變速器總產(chǎn)量的77％，而6速變速器市場(chǎng)份額將增加，尤其是大轉(zhuǎn)矩6速變速器。預(yù)計(jì)6速自動(dòng)變速器到2010年將占自動(dòng)變速器總產(chǎn)量的15％～20％，2015年為50％。預(yù)計(jì)4速自動(dòng)變速器到2010年將從新車產(chǎn)品中消失。
多年來日本的自動(dòng)變速器也一直處于市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)地位，由于CVT迅速占領(lǐng)市場(chǎng)特別是在日本占有很大比例的小型和微型汽車細(xì)分市場(chǎng)[2]。預(yù)計(jì)自動(dòng)變速器市場(chǎng)份額將從2005年的60％下降到2010年的50％，到2015年為45％。在新車市場(chǎng)增長很快的亞太地區(qū)（除日本），預(yù)計(jì)自動(dòng)變速器將從2005年的15％上升到2010年的18％，2015年達(dá)到22％。在歐洲， 自動(dòng)變速器市場(chǎng)將被DCT蠶食，從2005年的17％下降到2015年的16％，到2015年為14％。在2007年3月調(diào)查中發(fā)現(xiàn)，15％的歐洲自動(dòng)變速器車主計(jì)劃下次購買汽車選擇裝配DCT的車型，有超過40％的報(bào)告說他們將考慮裝有AMT的車型。分析認(rèn)為，全球汽車產(chǎn)量中裝載自動(dòng)變速器的汽車將很快超過裝載手動(dòng)變速器的汽車，但在自動(dòng)變速器的總量中有部分是由AMT所占比例上升引起的。隨著AMT和CVT的增長，預(yù)計(jì)傳統(tǒng)行星齒輪自動(dòng)變速器的產(chǎn)量將僅略高于2005年的2900萬臺(tái)，2010年將超過3 000萬臺(tái)并在2015年達(dá)到3300萬臺(tái)。
2.3 連續(xù)可變變速器（CVT）
CVT在日本一直處于市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)地位，預(yù)計(jì)CVT市場(chǎng)份額將繼續(xù)增長，從2005年的20％左右增加到2010年的38％。在其他市場(chǎng)，CVT將僅獲得一定的市場(chǎng)認(rèn)可度。預(yù)計(jì)到2010年CVT可能達(dá)到歐洲市場(chǎng)份額的5％，但實(shí)現(xiàn)的可能性比北美地區(qū)市場(chǎng)還要小[3]。雖然CVT可以傳輸較大的轉(zhuǎn)矩，但因?yàn)橹圃霤VT需要專門的合金鋼并且要進(jìn)行高精密加工，使得制造成本比較昂貴，大大超過了具有相當(dāng)功率的手動(dòng)變速器。CVT尺寸也是一個(gè)裝配問題，在歐洲，由于其轉(zhuǎn)矩傳輸能力較低，已經(jīng)限制了消費(fèi)者的接受度。在北美，到處都是大排量車輛，因此CVT的市場(chǎng)滲透力大大降低，只有給如本田Civic混合動(dòng)力等汽車配套。盡管在2個(gè)較大的市場(chǎng)接受度有限，全球CVT產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)還將增加約60％，從2005年的250萬臺(tái)增加到2010年的400萬臺(tái)以上，到2015年將近600萬臺(tái)。它將受到發(fā)展中國家快速增長的小型車市場(chǎng)、發(fā)達(dá)國家市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性更好的小型汽車以及混合動(dòng)力技術(shù)應(yīng)用的推動(dòng)。
2.4 機(jī)械式自動(dòng)變速器（AMT）
AMT市場(chǎng)份額預(yù)計(jì)將在今后幾年顯著增長，特別是隨著換擋質(zhì)量的提高使其在傳統(tǒng)自動(dòng)變速器主導(dǎo)的豪華車市場(chǎng)上更具吸引力。AMT的優(yōu)勢(shì)之一是將電氣傳動(dòng)改為液壓使其傳動(dòng)效率變得更好，并且在某種程度上AMT的傳動(dòng)效率超出手動(dòng)變速器，因?yàn)樗緳C(jī)不太可能比電腦更能最優(yōu)化換擋，以提高燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性[4]。
由于歐洲傳統(tǒng)上更喜歡手動(dòng)變速器，并把重點(diǎn)放在駕駛者控制和燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性的研究上，因此在歐洲AMT的增長率將是最高的，那里的市場(chǎng)份額預(yù)計(jì)將從2005年僅1％增加到2010 年的15％，到2015年為29％。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，15％購買并裝載自動(dòng)變速器汽車的歐洲車主計(jì)劃在下次購買汽車時(shí)選擇裝載DCT的車型，超過40％車主將考慮購買裝載AMT的汽車。預(yù)計(jì)到2015年歐洲D(zhuǎn)CT的市場(chǎng)占有率將達(dá)29％，但也有分析機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)占有率只有10％。在不包括日本的亞太地區(qū)，預(yù)計(jì)到2010年AMT市場(chǎng)份額將達(dá)到7 ％，2015年上升到13％。預(yù)測(cè)AMT在日本的市場(chǎng)份額將非常低，到2010年不會(huì)超過2％。預(yù)計(jì)北美的自動(dòng)變速器將繼續(xù)保持主導(dǎo)位置，AMT的市場(chǎng)占有率將從2005年的0上升到2010年的4％，到2015年為7％。預(yù)計(jì)AMT全球產(chǎn)量將在2010年超過550萬臺(tái)，到2015年約1200萬臺(tái)。
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