社會福利支出增加會造成未來世代終生凈稅率加重嗎

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1、* C orrespending author 404 129 04-2221-1181 ext 2598 kclin ntitedu.w 92 4 26 27 1989 2001 (generational accounting) 2.37^5.48 1999 JEL H51,H55,H6,138

2、 1989 1 AGK 1991,1994 2001 1989 1,830 2001 (1996) (1999) (1) ② (3) (4) (5) (6) G) (1) (2) (3) 2 1986 6.6% 2001 18.4% 1995 3 2003a 2003b A uerb

3、ach G okhale Kotlik。任 30,251 (generational accounting) 2003a 2003b 2001 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 3,407.2 4,544.6 5,159.1 5,848.4 7,654.4 9,215.8 10,924.0 10,499.3 12,575.7 14,163.3 15,027.5

4、 15,594.3 16,041.8 17,047.6 20,534.6 20,043.9 27,848.6 21,003.0 3,403.6 4,872.5 5,062.2 6,167.2 7,264.7 12,073.5 10,975.2 12,756.1 15,619.3 17,563.1 18,263.7 19,100.7 18,437.9 18,787.6 19,925.9 20,500.0 31,409.4 25,573.0 3.5 -327.9 96.9 -318.8 389.7 -2,857.8 -51.2 -2,25

5、6.8 -3,043.6 T,399.7 -3,236.1 -3,506.4 -2,396.0 -1,740.0 608.7 -456.1 -3,560.8 -4,570.0 1. GNP GNP 81 2. 90 2 1986 100.0 11.4 24.9 20.9 25.1 6.6 2.6 7.0 0.9 0.8 1988 100.0 11.0 22.1 20.3 26.5 7.6 3.0 7.6 1.1 0.8 1990 100.0 11.5 19.2 20.7 27.5 8.8 2.8 6.9

6、 1.5 1.0 1992 100.0 12.7 15.3 20.8 29.6 8.6 4.0 6.1 2.2 0.7 1994 100.0 11.8 17.6 20.9 25.6 8.7 4.5 6.1 4.1 0.6 1995 100.0 11.6 14.1 18.7 22.9 12.1 3.4 6.2 10.2 0.6 1996 100.0 13.2 15.5 20.3 17.9 15.7 3.7 7.4 5.8 0.5 1997 100.0 13.0 15.5 20.0 15.7

7、15.7 3.7 9.6 6.2 0.7 1998 100.0 12.9 15.7 20.7 16.8 14.2 3.8 9.4 5.8 0.8 1999 100.0 13.6 14.0 20.9 17.1 13.7 4.4 8.8 6.9 0.6 2000 100.0 14.9 11.4 20.9 15.1 16.9 3.4 8.4 8.6 0.4 2001 100.0 10.5 15.4 16.4 16.1 18.4 1.8 8.8 11.2 1.5 2.1 1995 2002

8、 1.36 0.78 88 5 3 6.5% 4.1% 91 6 102 45 92 353 93 725 3 3 90 91 92 93 2.930 3.218 3.057 3.365 3.168 3.540 -288 -308 -372 243 -45 -353 -725 <0 91 10 2002 84 4.25% 84 1998 4.25% 4.55% 2002 4 91 92 93 94 95 -45 -308 T72 -439 -510 46 112

9、 114 117 119 10 30 30 30 30 60 184 188 192 196 71 89 50 -52 -217 M SA 2000 2000 1998 2001 1.4 2.2 1.2 1.6 2001 AGK 1992 1989 OASDI HI 1995 G okhale and K otlikoff 1998 G okhale et al. 1999 1999 G okhale et al. 1995 AGK 1995 1993 K him p

10、es 2001 2.2 2000 2000 21 2000 2001 2000 20% "25% 90 3000 1 50% 90 7500 10% 750 20% 40% 600 150 400 80% 20% 3000 20% 40% 65 2001 130 3000 2000 2000 2003b

11、 5 750 (1) ② B oil et al 1994 1992 A guhik, C andarelli and Sefton 2000 G reen Paper 700 9.8% 7.4% 2060 GDP 0.7% 3.1 AGK 1991

12、 2003a 2003b 1994 A uerbach and K otlikoff 1999 火N” 必=64+力1 k+D A-f+1 E Nik = k Gs = s r= the rate of discount prelax real interest rate Nt.k G4m = MJ% 心 k t t 1 3 ⑶ AGK 1991 1994 (n A 、「30 X Ml -^r 匕 E+l ，十，/psf+1 GA+“,廣 t+1 t+1 <74 8 64*=^^= ZM- 1 + 〃 k=r+l

13、 ，+/ t X x = G41J+1 /GA/f G陽 2 叫，-tX 3 k?t-D t 0(1+乃 E ix. A=，+l / 1 (If H 4 11+川 _ t+1 GAq+i 國巖門 5 6 入 1 1 AGK 1994 k=O t-k 1+g [1 + r p

14、//J+k GAtl NTR =-- Y ▲ GA +i NTR/=—— ，十i y NT% -1 10 11 中一”一些 GM GA!^ G隹乜 GA1 工(哂+叱借 Ll "+，/ (12) (13) S) (10) NTR【 3.2 2001 AGK 1991 1994 NTR： Qn, 0Z 2001 GAL = KJ―E 13 2003a 20

15、03b 6 1 ( ) 451,080,495 2 ( ) 155,649,913 2001 (732) (740) (760) (770) (780) (790) (820) 233,677,981 (2001) 172,464,539

16、 2001 (591?598) 244,958,392 2001 (611?618) 76,225,277 125,348,846 2001 (981^988) 126,861,977 2001 (301^308) (311^318) (37C378) 68,544,608 1 2 2001 3.3 22,713 12,359 1970 ct al. 1999 g=L5% 87 140 2001 CPI AGK 1991 1994 1999 n

17、et finane ial assets 30,251 2% 3% 7% 2001 Pk,k 2001 2001 A ueibach 1% ?3% GNP AREM OS K otlikoff and L eibfrhz 1999 17 BoHc/ al. 1991 Jensen and Raffelhuschen P、 2001 1999 GNP 2001 2001 K akw aniand K rungkaew 1997

18、 2001 g=0.01 0.015 0.02 r= 0.03 0.05 0.07 4.1 g=0.015 r=0.05 7 8 9 0 25 65 98.7 67.9 1 0 3.44 入 1 82.1 122.7 60 65 0 282.8 0.5 1.45 力 7 g 0.015, r 0.05 1,000 2001 1 2 0

19、 821.00 550.15 109.49 192.66 121.57 176.32 69.63 95.02 80.95 83.59 5 893.00 540.23 129.13 227.55 143.39 208.03 65.72 112.13 95.39 82.08 10 968.77 530.17 152.73 270.06 169.92 246.62 74.39 132.95 112.83 80.56 15 1059.91 519.07 181.13 321.23 201.84 293.10 85.89 1

20、58.00 133.69 78.87 20 1159.08 506.99 215.46 366.48 240.14 348.77 97.07 186.35 158.30 77.03 25 1226.77* 492.34 252.07 373.95 281.90 402.41 106.83 206.86 187.40 74.81 30 1225.96 473.26 283.76 343.12 311.67 432.30 115.19 210.78 220.27 71.91 35 1143.46 451.08 295.3

21、4 302.59 320.56 428.03 124.47 204.82 256.31 68.54 40 1002.95 425.55 296.72 255.95 311.90 404.50 136.10 196.97 293.95 64.66 45 786.16 396.70 286.35 204.10 287.11 343.13 148.89 185.39 336.68 60.28 50 535.68 365.38 269.90 149.08 252.92 272.62 161.86 165.66 391.17

22、 55.52 55 198.70 330.07 243.01 101.78 207.97 150.42 172.89 142.47 469.04 50.15 60 -124.19 291.92 196.95 57.31 162.49 69.47 183.09 103.35 571.52 44.35 65 -403.36 251.21 152.77 24.54 122.74 39.77 189.23 55.98 711.00 38.17 70 T79.42 207.20 112.40 0.00 86.69 23.68

23、 187.81 10.41 579.69 31.48 75 -341.00 163.57 76.47 0.00 60.74 6.64 176.59 6.57 440.40 24.85 80 -263.01 122.85 48.04 0.00 41.18 1.70 155.06 4.26 298.80 18.67 85 -184.81 80.61 25.20 0.00 19.80 0.00 102.76 4.14 191.27 12.25 90 -80.04 20.09 4.90 0.00 0.88 0.00

24、 28.89 4.58 69.39 3.05 2828.04 X=3.44 *  2001 1 2 0 986.91 543.37 157.44 216.77 195.28 238.60 70.57 119.48 91.95 82.56 5 1091.62 532.63 185.77 256.17 230.45 281.82 64.91 141.05 108.33 80.93 10 1207.44 522.50 220.00 304.68 273.64 335.02 73.18 167.53 128.30 7

25、9.39 15 1345.57 510.52 261.15 362.70 325.25 398.61 84.12 199.19 151.83 77.57 20 1492.97 496.13 310.02 414.89 386.57 468.16 93.84 234.82 178.75 75.38 25 1612.80* 479.41 362.52 442.52 455.41 527.22 103.42 266.88 211.13 72.84 30 1607.38 458.28 408.14 417.43 504.98

26、 529.76 114.32 279.09 248.17 69.63 35 1483.72 434.07 426.38 375.12 517.61 492.77 126.26 279.32 290.69 65.95 40 1284.82 407.06 428.85 325.54 501.93 437.00 138.51 272.44 342.73 61.85 45 1003.11 377.01 409.62 269.01 456.10 361.86 151.51 259.91 401.79 57.28 50 691

27、.97 345.15 386.26 206.69 397.08 279.96 165.09 231.86 473.78 52.44 55 320.82 310.67 347.48 148.22 327.45 201.38 176.78 214.72 575.67 47.20 60 -75.31 273.40 275.97 86.57 256.55 122.88 187.23 150.97 710.95 41.54 65 -474.16 234.50 205.59 37.97 190.46 81.65 193.71

28、93.90 901.08 35.63 70 -420.76 194.16 142.31 0.00 131.31 65.18 196.17 14.29 713.76 29.50 75 -389.06 154.67 90.66 0.00 90.97 44.82 189.99 8.25 548.43 23.50 80 -353.70 116.50 54.61 0.00 68.96 21.03 171.14 4.81 421.14 17.70 85 -285.17 77.67 30.02 0.00 32.80 8.49

29、 122.96 4.00 295.40 11.80 90 -137.94 20.09 13.14 0.00 1.76 2.91 33.51 0.86 138.42 3.05 3325.44 九二3.44 中二 L45 9 g=0.015, r=0>05 1,000 2001 1 2 0 679.33 557.50 57.91 167.42 42.28 138.42 67.73 69.14 62.61 84.71 5 723.26 548.49 68.27 197.62 49.84 163.31 65.58

30、 81.56 73.80 83.34 10 765.45 538.60 80.76 234.01 58.96 193.32 74.55 96.52 87.29 81.84 15 816.96 528.20 95.51 278.03 69.95 229.65 86.28 114.61 103.23 80.26 20 864.79* 518.47 113.79 315.82 82.99 268.95 98.61 135.00 122.83 78.78 25 840.31 505.92 133.10 302.05 9

31、5.51 277.47 108.12 143.17 145.58 76.87 30 766.24 488.84 149.60 265.21 103.84 255.33 113.32 138.24 170.74 74.28 35 658.71 468.65 153.69 226.62 108.23 214.11 119.32 125.71 196.36 71.21 40 532.70 444.60 153.83 183.38 106.82 173.87 129.83 117.02 215.39 67.55 45 38

32、5.71 416.79 152.61 136.83 103.78 124.92 141.85 106.76 237.29 63.33 50 218.08 385.72 143.77 90.07 95.60 81.10 153.58 96.17 269.83 58.61 55 47.30 349.33 130.40 55.24 77.03 40.69 163.47 68.35 320.51 53.08 60 436.01 309.79 110.19 28.60 57.20 19.12 172.60 54.60 38

33、6.64 47.07 65 -290.73 266.71 90.48 11.27 41.82 8.27 177.25 17.19 474.31 40.52 70 -289.61 221.93 73.33 0.00 28.61 3.12 174.70 5.28 402.93 33.72 75 -245.27 174.62 59.41 0.00 24.34 1.93 161.28 4.43 313.33 26.53 80 -150.58 129.70 41.37 0.00 11.79 0.98 138.80 3.

34、54 172.38 19.71 85 -91.14 83.24 21.32 0.00 8.20 0.45 85.07 4.00 102.63 12.65 90 -43.22 20.09 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 25.50 6.80 28.31 3.05 2288.67 九二3.44 0> = 1.45 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8=0.015 r=0.05 10 13.30% 14.14% 12.77% 2002 42.31% 231% 231% 4.2 g=0.01

35、0.015 0.02 i=0.03 0.05 g r g=0.01 r=0.07 1.28 6 g=0.02 i=0.05 0 2001 1.37% 45.06% 46.86% 0 239% 0.07 5.48 k 2.37 人 1.69 ① 10 % NTR g 0.01 g 0.015 g 0.02 r 0.

36、03 0.05 0.07 r 0.03 0.05 0.07 r 0.03 0.05 0.07 N%； 12.67 14.70 17.43 12.20 14.14 16.61 11.73 13.61 15.88 NTR《 33.38 53.61 91.51 29.87 46.86 78.80 26.92 41.18 68.11 0 163 265 425 145 231 374 130 203 329 NT乩 10.45 13.67 17.92 9.72 12.77 16.66 9.01 11.93

37、15.52 NTRh 27.53 49.85 94.10 23.81 42.31 79.03 20.69 36.10 66.55 0 163 265 425 145 231 374 130 203 329 NTR 11.61 13.96 17.13 11.06 13.30 16.17 10.52 12.69 15.32 NTR；? 31.02 52.16 92.75 27.40 45.06 79.04 24.38 39.16 67.59 0 167 274 442 148 239 389 132

38、209 341 1. NTR 短 NTR《 NTR短 NTR黑 NTR《 NTR；? 2001 2002 2. 0 備） 10 10.52% "17.13% 24.38% "92.75% 132% "442% 130% "425% g=0.015 r=0.05 5.1 6% 3 2007 5.33% 2012 5.86% 2017 6% 2007 5.33% 2012 5.86% 2017 6.55% 2022 7.28% 11 6%

39、 3.44 3.67 282.8 292.8 332.5 345.8 228.9 235.4 11 1.000 onni 0 821.00 986.91 679.33 797.91 964.08 656.31 782.99 949.58 641.19 5 893.00 1091.62 723.26 867.56 1066.69 697.67 851.12 1050.70 681.05 10 968.77 1207.44 765.45 939.94 1179.2

40、9 736.36 922.05 1161.57 718.62 15 1059.91 1345.57 816.96 1027.71 1314.15 784.54 1008.28 1294.53 765.74 20 1159.08 1492.97 864.79* 1123.67 1458.18 829.49* 1102.38 1436.63 809.03* 25 1226.77* 1612.80* 840.31 1188.22* 1574.34* 802.60 1161.95* 1550.92* 780.16 30 1225.

41、96 1607.38 766.24 1184.18 1565.27 725.96 1159.14 1540.30 701.69 35 1143.46 1483.72 658.71 1098.08 1437.95 615.11 1071.66 1411.89 589.30 40 1002.95 1284.82 532.70 953.91 1235.50 485.53 926.68 1209.00 458.68 45 786.16 1003.11 385.71 733.88 950.73 335.32 706.81 924.

42、79 308.39 50 535.68 691.97 218.08 480.88 637.32 165.17 455.38 613.21 139.70 55 198.70 320.82 47.30 142.88 265.30 -6.54 121.02 244.80 -28.43 60 -124.19 -75.31 -136.01 -178.93 -129.57 -188.64 -195.05 -144.51 -201.89 65 -403.36 ■474.16 -290.73 -453.80 -524.30 -338.

43、83 -462.75 -532.57 -317.81 70 ■379.42 ?420.76 -289.64 -421.04 -163.10 -329.52 -423.57 465.55 -332.06 75 ■341.00 -389.06 吃45.27 -370.65 -420.31 -273.24 -370.65 420.31 -273.24 80 N63.01 -353.70 -150.58 -279.73 -372.01 -165.68 史 79.73 -672.01 -165.68 85 -184.81 -285.

44、17 -91.14 -190.31 -291.66 -95.76 -190.31 -291.66 -95.76 90 -80.04 -137.94 M3.22 -80.01 -137.94 -43.22 -80.04 -137.94 -13.22 2828.04 3325.44 2288.67 2928.30 3457.95 2353.95 2979.13 3529.01 2382.85 九二 3.44 X =3.67 X =3.80 2002 2007 5.33% 2012 5.86% 2017

45、 6% 2007 5.33% 2012 5.86% 2017 6.55% 2022 7.28% 2.* 11 3.44 3.80 282.8 297.9 352.9 4 4 228.9 238.3 12 45.06 239% 46.66% 47.47% 332.5 5 261% 274% 46.86% 48.72% 49.73% 42.31% 43.51% 44.05% 12 NTRg K 13.30 14

46、.14 12.77 45.06 46.86 42.31 12.92 13.81 12.33 46.66 48.72 43.51 12.68 13.60 12.05 47.47 49.73 44.05 6 239 231 231 261 253 253 274 266 266 1. NTR。、 NTRQ2 2001 2002 2. 0 5.2 2000 7,500 3,000 2000 13 2000 661 65 2031 2003b 60、75 65 20% 2001

47、776 2,402 g= 0.015 r=0.05 25 0=3.44 2031 30 2000 ①=2.56 2 929 65 768 65 2031 3,857 13 LOOO onni A B 0 821.00 986.91 679.33 901.46 1078.41 741.39 847.06 1031.33 679.05 9

48、42.08 1150.81 748.19 5 893.00 1091.62 723.26 987.58 1199.22 796.15 924.35 1144.51 723.65 1036.48 1285.56 805.21 10 968.77 1207.44 765.45 1080.27 1334.54 851.27 1006.61 1270.74 766.76 1139.56 1438.27 863.28 15 1059.91 1345.57 816.96 1191.28 1495.17 917.77 1105.50

49、1420.99 819.61 1262.80 1619.41 933.56 20 1159.08 1192.97 864.79* 1313.81 1668.53 983.64* 1214.06 1582.63 869.23* 1395.04 1812.94 997.96* 25 1226.77* 1612.80* 840.31 1408.20 1818.72 979.10 1293.05 1719.80 846.90 1487.50 1973.20 978.79 30 1225.96 1607.38 766.24 1435.

50、49* 1846.36* 924.62 1304.20* 1733.79* 773.87 1498.69* 1994.07* 898.44 35 1143.46 1483.72 658.71 1381.00 1759.79 832.01 1232.46 1632.43 661.60 1420.55 1889.96 775.81 40 1002.95 1284.82 532.70 1267.14 1602.21 713.79 1100.92 1459.27 523.60 1280.09 1707.83 629.06 45 7

51、86.16 1003.11 385.71 1076.79 1363.13 572.59 893.89 1205.10 361.31 1058.87 1435.56 459.88 50 535.68 691.97 218.08 856.33 1101.03 411.55 659.93 930.10 189.53 804.98 1137.39 269.10 55 198.70 320.82 47.30 549.86 786.76 241.83 349.19 610.22 17.21 466.67 784.62 75.64

52、60 -124.19 -75.31 -136.01 246.52 445.61 39.37 59.98 280.63 -167.99 138.08 397.90 -130.69 65 -403.36 -474.16 -290.73 -69.50 17.31 -161.22 -210.80 -106.79 -318.46 -175.54 79.15 -306.85 70 -379.42 -120.76 -289.64 -140.84 -68.71 -201.17 -234.78 -151.62 -307.55 -226.85

53、 -141.15 -303.10 75 -341.00 -389.06 -245.27 -196.16 -146.41 -215.55 -251.06 -195.40 -277.79 -246.23 -189.59 -274.26 80 -263.01 -353.70 -150.58 -192.68 -191.82 -175.51 -218.50 -214.89 -201.29 -215.22 -211.46 -201.33 85 -184.81 W85.17 -91.14 -153.74 -189.95 -114.37

54、-159.37 -195.15 -120.37 -156.43 -193.06 -116.95 90 -80.04 -137.94 -13.22 -80.04 -137.94 M3.22 -80.04 -137.91 -43.22 -60.04 -137.94 -43.22 2828.04 3325.44 2288.67 2311.03 2718.95 1868.70 2619.88 3133.52 2062.89 2263.62 2720.12 1768.61 入=3.44 X =2.56 X =3.0c X =2.

55、40 :1. 2. A B 3.* 0=3.09 3 B ①二 2.40 313.4 A 6 B B 14 B 103% 稅 36.82% I B (38.31% ) B 271.9 75 B 272.0 0 74.8 60 B 1 A 9% (45.06% (239% 2% (13.30% 36.07% ) 136% ) 15.26% ) 稅 200% 3 36.07% 1% B B (15.45% 16.48%) (38.33% ) A B 176

56、.9 14 A B NT% NTR睥 13.3 14.1 12.8 45.1 46.9 42.3 14.6 15.5 13.9 36.8 38.3 34.5 13.7 14.8 12.8 41.7 44.2 38.1 15.3 16.5 14.1 36.1 38.3 32.7 e 239 231 231 152 148 148 201 199

57、199 136 133 133 1. N77?g NTR。二 2001 2002 2. 0 稅 義） 1989 1995 3 2003a 2003b 2.37^5.48 24.38% ~92.75% 2001 2003a 2003b 1999 10.52% "17.13% 0.5 6% 1.37% 21 347T78 239^ 261% 274% 2002 2002 2002 2000 2000 1-18 2001 31 1996 59 5 4 8-14 2001 2 67-

58、90 11 2 44 40/6 1998 2001 1999 1989-1999 13 4 55To 2000 64 52-56 2003a fbrthcom ing 2003b fbrthcom ing 2000 A gulnik, P., R. C ardarelli and J. Sefton (2000), The Pensions G reen Paper: A Generational A ccounting Perfective, Economic Journaly 110 067), 598-610. A ueibach, A . Jr J. G okh

59、ale, and L.J. K otlikoff (1995), R estoring G enerationalB alance in U .S. FiscalPolicy: W hatW ill It Take? Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review, 31 (1), 2-12. A ueibach, A. J., J. G okhale, and L.J. K otlikoff (1994), Generational A ccounting： A M eaningfiilW ay to Evahate FiscalPoli

60、cy, Journal of Economic Perspectives^ 8, 73-94. A uerbach, A. J., J. G okhale, and L. J. K otlikoff (1992), Social Security and M edicare Policy fom the Per^ectives of G eneiationalA ccounting, in Poteiba, J. M . (ed?)，Tax Policy and the Economyy 129-145, C am bridge, M A :TheM IT Press. A ueibach

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